Politics
The TNR Politics Quiz

Politics tamfitronics

Politics tamfitronics Test your knowledge—from who has won the most Congressional Baseball Games to the only president to die in the U.S. Capitol building.

Illustration by James Yates

Each month, Christian Hunt gathers readers in Washington, D.C., for a night of political trivia. Now we’re sharing these tricky tidbits with the wider world of wonks.

Christian Hunt is the host of TNR’s live event the Best Political Night in D.C.

Politics
Five Things to Know In Crypto This Week: BTC and ETH Diverge on ETF Flow Trends

Politics tamfitronics

On Saturday, July 27, Mt. Gox had 80,128 BTCequivalent to $5.43 billion, to transfer to exchanges.

US Presidential Election Race: Bitcoin Reserve Pledge

The 2024 US Presidential Election continued to influence BTC price trends.

Rumors of Donald Trump planning to announce a Bitcoin Reserve Policy if elected, drove BTC demand. Trump will speak at Bitcoin 2024 on Saturday, July 27. If Trump turns the US into a BTC buyer, BTC could reach new highs.

The crypto vote could be crucial in the 2024 race to the White House, with Democratic Party front-runner Kamala Harris aiming to woo crypto voters from the Trump camp.

This week, news emerged of Harris planning to attend Bitcoin 2024.

While bipartisan support for the US crypto space could boost BTC demand, a US Bitcoin Reserve Policy could be a game changer.

SEC vs. Ripple: Settlement Hopes Wane After SEC Closed Meeting

Speculation about a settlement in the SEC vs. Ripple case drove XRP to a July 17 high of $0.6378.

Investors reacted to the SEC announcing a closed meetingspeculating that Ripple could attend to discuss settlement terms.

However, there were no updates from the closed meeting to signal a settlement. XRP dropped below $0.60 as settlement hopes waned.

Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel commented about the speculation of a settlement, stating,

“I’ve tried to patiently explain to people what closed meetings are, how they work, and why a settlement (if it existed) likely wouldn’st even be calendared at one (as presumably the sole person here who used to attend them).”

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan also poured cold water on the chances of a settlement, saying,

“This is unlikely to happen but if it does it is a compromise not a big win. It means both parties give up something.”

A settlement would end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.

XRP could return to $1.00 on news of an SEC settlement. Conversely, an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling could send XRP below the $0.40 level.

From Monday, July 22, to Saturday, July 27, XRP was up 0.17% to $0.5989.

XRP Weekly Chart 270724

US ETH-Spot ETF Market Launched on July 23

On Tuesday, July 23, ETH-spot ETF issuers launched their ETH-spot ETFs. However, buyer demand for ETH-spot ETFs did not match US BTC-spot ETFs at launch, impacting ETH price trends.

According to Farside Investors, the US ETH-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $341.8 million in the first four days of trading.

  • Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw total net outflows of $1,513.5 million.
  • iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) reported total net inflows of $442.0 million.
  • Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) had total net inflows of $265.9 million.
  • Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) saw total net inflows of $219.4 million.

By comparison, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $1,259.5 million in the first four days of trading despite GBTC reporting total net outflows of $1,634.2 million.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends, stating,

“The ‘New Eight’ Ether ETFs not quite as strong as the ‘New Nine’ bitcoin ETFs in offsetting Grayscale outflows but good news is their inflows/volume is still very healthy, and the intensity of the ETHE unlock will die down sooner than it did w GBTC=outlook good but next few days could be tough.”

From Monday, July 22, to Saturday, July 27, ETH was down 7.83% to $3,260. Near-term trends will remain hinged on US ETH-spot ETF demand.

Politics
What the Kamala Harris ‘coconut tree’ meme foreshadows about our political future

Politics tamfitronics

When President Joe Biden announced his departure from the 2024 presidential race and his endorsement of Kamala Harris last week, it didn’t take long for videos of the vice president to start trending on social media.

A video of Harris dancing with a group of children resurfaced from years ago. The TikTok, posted by The Daily Mail, reached over 28 million views and was captioned on screen, “Kamala Harris on her way to White House:🕺

Perhaps the most viral Harris video has been the “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree” moment, which originated from Harris’ May 2023 speech about advancing opportunities for Hispanic Americans. The coconut and tree emoji now symbolize Harris’ campaign, expressing a certain goofiness, but also an excitement about Harris as the clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Viral moments like these showcase the wackier side of politics. Already this year, social media users have seen Republican nominee Donald Trump rambling about washing machines, Biden appearing to walk away from world leaders at the G7 meeting, and Biden and Trump arguing about who has the bigger golf handicap at the debate.

For people who get their news through newspapers, magazines and TV, those moments were brief asides in a complex news cycle. But for a growing number of Americans who only get their news through social media, they may have been the main event. Meaning there’s reason to take these bite-size, memeable moments and social videos seriously as we navigate a particularly chaotic presidential election.

This demonstrates how prospective Gen Z voters are consuming content, revealing that viral moments tucked away into memes and short-form video may have a larger meaning.

A Pew Research survey published in February found that 56% of all U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 say they use TikTok. According to Politico Playbook“In the two days since Biden dropped out, Vote.org saw its highest levels of new voter registrations of the whole cycle: 38,500 people signed up, a 700 percent spike and higher even than when TAYLOR SWIFT made an Instagram post. Most were 34 and under.” This demonstrates how prospective Gen Z voters are consuming content, revealing that viral moments tucked away into memes and short-form video may have a larger meaning.

Viral videos could also have an adverse effect on the election by spreading misinformation or giving a misleading impression of what’s going on.

While misinformation is a clear disadvantage of social media, raising awareness to different topics is a major benefit.

New York state Sen. Monica R. Martinez said that viral videos can help get people who aren’t paying attention more interested in the election.

“Social media plays one of the most important roles in mobilizing the community, rallying support for candidates, and ultimately driving voter turnout,” she said.

And while the kinds of videos that go viral tend to be a little goofy, that doesn’t mean they don’t have any value.

Jennifer Stromer-Galley, a professor of information studies at Syracuse University, said that the back-and-forth between Trump and Biden at the debate over who plays golf better, despite being “incredibly childish” in her words, accurately communicated the clear power struggle between the two then-candidates.

It also went viral because it reflected concerns that voters already had about the ages of the two candidates and their ability to do the job.

The viral video that appeared to show Biden walking away from leaders at the G7 summit was later debunked for using misleading camera angles and cutting off a moment when Biden was actually walking over to talk to a parachuter. While misleading, it went viral because it reflected voters’ actual concerns about the president.

Dr. Dannagal Young, a professor of communication and political science at the University of Delaware who has more than 21,000 followers on X, said the moments that go viral also tend to have a strong emotional tinge to them, especially if they’re tied to the viewer’s own identity.

That can be incredibly powerful at resonating with viewers, and it can also cut both ways, as we saw with videos showing Trump making baseless claims about the 2020 election, which tend to get shared by both Trump supporters and critics, albeit for different purposes.

“It’s about in-group, out-group threat,” Young said. “If you’re on the right, you’re proud that he’s saying this. If you’re on the left, you’re outraged that he’s saying it. So those kinds of references have a stickiness to them.”

Young said voters should keep that dynamic in mind when they’re using social media and consider whether it’s worth amplifying the other side’s claim just because they personally find it divisive.

“When you encounter content that makes you feel a strong emotion, you have to ask yourself, ‘Why am I feeling this? Who is benefiting from this, and do I want to be complicit in furthering this sort of emotional contagion of this kind of content that is so divisive?’” she said. “Before you go to like or retweet or whatever, you have to ask yourself, ‘Do I want to be a cog in the machinery of this algorithm that makes this content more potent, more powerful, or should I just sit this one out?’”

This election cycle is unprecedented in more ways than one, and social media adds another layer to an already nuanced conversation. Will these viral moments affect the election? The answer is: only if we let them.

Ari Bernick

Ari Bernick is an MSNBC intern and multimedia journalist at Northwestern University.

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