Politics tamfitronics
Politics tamfitronics Are the polls ‘improbably tight’? Some experts think so
Robert Tait
The US presidential election campaign enters its final weekend with polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in seemingly permanent deadlock and few clues as to which of them will prevail on Tuesday.
At the end of another unruly week that began with Trump’s racially charged rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden and was punctuated by celebrity endorsements, misogynistic comments and insults about “garbage” being levelled left and right, the Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed little change from seven days earlier, with voter loyalty to their chosen candidate appearing relatively impervious to campaign events, however seismic.
Nationally, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has a one-point advantage, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, virtually identical to last week. Such an advantage is well with the margin of error of most polls.
The battleground states, too, remain in a dead heat. The candidates are evenly tied at 48% in Pennsylvania, often seen as the most important swing state because it has the most electoral votes (19). Harris has single-point leads in the two other blue-wall states, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is marginally ahead in the Sun belt: up by 1% in North Carolina and 2% in Georgia and Arizona. In Nevada, his average advantage in the polls is less than a percentage point.
Writing on NBC’s website, Josh Clinton, a politics professor at Vanderbilt University, and John Lapinski, the network’s director of elections, pondered whether the tied race reflected not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters. Some, they suggested, may be wary of findings indicating unusually large leads for one candidate and introduce corrective weighting.
Of the last 321 polls in the battlegrounds, 124 – nearly 40% – showed margins of a single point or less, the pair wrote. Pennsylvania was the most “troubling” case, with 20 out of 59 polls showing an exact tie, while another 26 showed margins of less than 1%.
This indicated “not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race”, according to Clinton and Lapinski.
Read the full piece here:
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Here’s a summary of the day:
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In a startling reversal, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters as the presidential race comes down to its final days.
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Vaccine skeptic Robert F Kennedy Jr – who was recently reported to be up for a role in US health and food safety in Trump’s administration – said in a social media post that he would remove fluoride from all public water if Trump wins the election.
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Harris and Trump criss-crossed the country today, as both candidates tried to drum up support in the final weekend ahead of the presidential election. Both candidates began the day in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, before Harris departed for Atlanta and then Charlotte, North Carolina. Trump also traveled to North Carolina, before heading to a rally in Virginia.
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Both candidates’ running mates appeared at events in Nevada and Arizona. Tim Walz knocked on doors in Henderson, Nevada, before speaking alongside Indigenous leaders in Flagstaff and then courting Latino voters in Tucson. Meanwhile, JD Vance spoke in Las Vegas before heading to a gun store in Scottsdale.
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Americans took to the streets in cities across the country for a day of women’s marches. Marches were planned in all 50 states for the eighth annual gathering, which began the day after Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2017.
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Joe Biden spoke at a carpenters’ union in his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was joined by his granddaughter, a sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania.
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The national guard is on standby in at least three states – Washington, Oregon and Nevada – and Washington DC as the election approaches, as fears of civil unrest grow.
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A record number of wealthy Americans are planning to leave the country as election day approaches, NBC News reports, citing fears that the election could spur political and social unrest regardless of its outcome.
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The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, a startling reversal for political analysts who had all but written off the state as a win for Republicans.
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The poll shows Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters as the presidential race comes down to its final days.
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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice
This is a stunning poll. But Ann Seltzer has as stellar a record as any pollster of forecasting election outcomes in her state.
Women are powering this surge. Portents for the country?? https://t.co/CNJfcQKXja— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 2, 2024
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“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, said to the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
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The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co from 28-31 October. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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In a post on X, Robert F Kennedy Jr has said that he would remove fluoride from all public water if Donald Trump is elected and gives him responsibility over the nation’s health agencies.
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“Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease,” Kennedy wrote.
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On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water. Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease. President…
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) November 2, 2024
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Although fluoride is associated with some health issues, dentists strongly recommend adding it to public water to prevent tooth decay. Fluoride is naturally occurring in drinking water at varying levels.
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US district judge Edward Chen ruled on 24 September that the Environmental Protection Agency must take action regarding fluoride in drinking water, claiming his finding does not “conclude with certainty” any harmful effects but that there is evidence of the risk of cognitive decline.
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The ruling stems from an August report from the Department of Health and Human Service’s National Toxicology Program, which found that drinking water that contained more than twice the recommended limit of fluoride was “consistently associated” with lower IQ in children.
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Despite this ruling, the American Dental Association said in a statement in September that it remains “staunchly in support” of adding fluoride to community drinking water to help prevent tooth decay.
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Donald Trump has taken the stage at his second rally of the day, this time in Salem, Virginia – a state that his rival Kamala Harris is leading by a wide margin.
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“We win Virginia, we win the whole thing without question,” Trump said. “It’s very possible that without winning Virginia we’re going to win the whole thing too.”
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Trump was introduced by Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, who led attendees in a prayer before the ex-president began speaking.
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Kamala Harris’s rally in Charlotte was briefly interrupted by pro-Palestine protestors.
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“One of the reasons we are here is because we are fighting for a democracy, and the right of people to speak their mind, but right now I am speaking,” Harris said. “Democracy can be complicated, it’s all right. This is what democracy looks like.”
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Several protestors just escorted out of the Harris rally here yelling “STOP BOMBING ISRAEL.”
— Kellie Meyer (@KellieMeyerNews) November 2, 2024
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Preparing for potential social unrest ahead of Tuesday’s election, the national guard is on standby in at least three states and Washington DC, CNN reports.
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In Washington, governor Jay Inslee has announced that the national guard is on standby following recent ballot box fires there. Meanwhile, in neighboring Oregon, governor Tina Kotek says the national guard is prepared to respond to potential uncertainty, following another ballot box fire in Portland. And in Nevada, governor Joe Lombardo says 60 troops are prepared to oversee a “safe and smooth election day”.
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Meanwhile, law enforcement is preparing for election day in Washington DC, where more than 3,000 police officers will work in 12-hour shifts.
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As the Women’s March in Washington DC kicks off, women and supporters are gathering across the country in the 8th annual march since the 21 January 2017 march spurred by Donald Trump’s inauguration and the Access Hollywood tapes.
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Here’s the latest from around the country:
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Huge crowd for the Women’s March on Freedom Plaza pic.twitter.com/QFj1gBNWde
— Joe Flood (@joeflood) November 2, 2024
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Waiting for the Monroe (MI) Marches Forward Women’s March to start! #DemCastMI #WomensMarch #NotGoingBack #YesWeKam pic.twitter.com/UqfD1IlDLA
— Jill 🫴🏻✋🏻 #DemCastMI (@WhitchMI) November 2, 2024
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We’re not going back!!! Had a great time at the Women’s March in Tuscaloosa rallying to get out the vote. Great to meet this future voter who knows what’s possible when we as women and girls use our power! 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/E3BGH9roJa
— Terri A. Sewell (@Sewell4Congress) November 2, 2024
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At the Women’s March in Boston pic.twitter.com/jsWhkLq0eK
— Aline Boucher Kaplan (@AlineKaplan) November 2, 2024
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As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump make their closing arguments ahead of Tuesday’s election, Americans are preparing to take to the streets in cities across the country for a day of Women’s marches. Marches are planned in all 50 states.
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“No matter where you’re voting, we are in a choice between freedom and fascism,” Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of Women’s March, told ABC News Live today.
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Women’s March protesters will rally in Washington, D.C. at 4 p.m. today, voicing support for VP Kamala Harris and reproductive rights.
“No matter where you’re voting, we are in a choice between freedom and fascism,” Women’s March executive director Rachel O’Leary Carmona says. pic.twitter.com/IDTA54rzqW
— ABC News Live (@ABCNewsLive) November 2, 2024
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Harris and Trump have taken different approaches to earning female voters’ support, with Harris campaigning largely on issues of reproductive freedom and abortion access, while Trump says he will be a “protector” of women.
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Here are some photos from marches across the country – we’ll keep you updated on any developments as the largest march in Washington DC kicks off:
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Waiting for the Monroe (MI) Marches Forward Women’s March to start! #DemCastMI #WomensMarch #NotGoingBack #YesWeKam pic.twitter.com/UqfD1IlDLA
— Jill 🫴🏻✋🏻 #DemCastMI (@WhitchMI) November 2, 2024
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Plymouth MA Women’s March visibility on Saturday. Nov. 2 in support of women’s rights, #Harris/Walz and down ballot Democrats, pic.twitter.com/OncxTmMk2u
— 🐝Tracy on Thee MTA 🖖🏻🇺🇦✈️🚝 🪷 (@SeelyeTracy) November 2, 2024
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Great turnout for the women’s rights rally and march in New Milford today! Thanks to the organizers and to all who came out! pic.twitter.com/H4HlkJC1lj
— Justin Potter for State Senate (@justinpotter24) November 2, 2024
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Director Spike Lee and Georgia senator Jon Ossoff have begun speaking at Kamala Harris’s rally in Atlanta, as Donald Trump addresses supporters at a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina.
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Tapping into current fears that there will be voter suppression in this election, Ossoff told attendees in Atlanta: “[Trump] tried to throw out your votes. You all remember the phone call.”
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“You know what has been given for the struggle for voting rights in the state of Georgia, and across the American south,” Ossoff added.
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Meanwhile, Trump is speaking about the support he’s received from customs and border patrol agents (saying agents have told him “he’s the greatest president in the history of our country”), the economy and the election (“we’re just three days away from the greatest political victory in world history”).
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JD Vance is expected to begin speaking soon in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Joe Biden will be addressing a carpenters union in his home town of Scranton, Pennsylvania.
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A deep dive inside Donald Trump’s campaign published today in the Atlantic shows how the ex-president has struggled to balance his chaotic tendencies with running a disciplined campaign. The report notes that after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, Trump’s advisers encouraged him to stick to planned criticism of the Biden-Harris administration while the ex-president instead longed to attack Harris personally. As a result, Trump began communicating with two of his 2016 campaign managers, Kellyanne Conway and Corey Lewandowski, citing fears that he was being overly “managed” by his current advisors.
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NEW — and several months in the making — my final look beneath the hood of Trump 2024.
Pour a cup of coffee and find a comfy chair.
“Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign”https://t.co/aWTijBQqH4
— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 2, 2024
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The report includes two other notable asides: Trump wanted to start calling the current president “Retarded Joe Biden” but was dissuaded by current aides, and broke ties with far-right activist Laura Loomer when he learned she’d had significant plastic surgery.
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In the final days before the 2024 election, Donald Trump is growing increasingly anxious, Axios reports. Although the former president’s campaign is projecting confidence, a campaign official close to Trump tells Axios that the ex-president is asking more questions about polling and demanding more work from his aides in late-night and early morning calls.
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NEW: Trump is getting anxious, asking more questions and demanding more work from his aides. His restlessness is evident in late-night/early-morning calls in which he peppers aides w/ Qs on how things are going — and whether they think he’ll win. https://t.co/dDj57JWOr3
— Sophia Cai (@SophiaCai99) November 2, 2024
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Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump head to North Carolina on Saturday to try to clinch support in the south-eastern battleground state just three days before Tuesday’s US presidential election. It will be the fourth day in a row that vice-president Harris and former president Trump visit the same state on the same day, underlining the critical importance of the seven states likely to decide the race, which opinion polls show to be on a knife’s edge, Reuters reported.
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Trump and Harris battled to woo voters in the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin on Friday, as the presidential campaign enters its final stretch. Harris made several appearances in Wisconsin on Friday, including one that featured the musician Cardi B, while Trump visited both Michigan and Wisconsin. At his rally in Warren, Michigan, on Friday afternoon, Trump tried to energize his voters, delivering an address replete with his characteristic fear-mongering about immigrants and tangents including musings about his hair.
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At a Wisconsin rally on Friday, Donald Trump called Kamala Harris a “low-IQ person” and vowed to save the economy “from total obliteration” in a 1.5 hour-long meandering speech that touched on top campaign issues including the economy and foreign policy – but also featured threats to curb press freedoms and a lengthy discussion of his own rhetorical style. “I will stop the criminal invasion of this country,” said Trump during his opening remarks, promising to usher in a new “golden age”. “Can you imagine if Kamala won? You would go down to a 1929 style depression,” said Trump.
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Top Republicans have called on the White House to produce all documents and internal communications regarding president Joe Biden’s statement earlier this week in which he appeared to take a swipe at supporters of Donald Trump. White House press officials altered the official transcript of Biden’s statement, drawing objections from the federal workers who document such remarks for posterity, according to two US government officials and an internal email obtained on Thursday by the Associated Press.
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The office of Arizona Democratic attorney general Kris Mayes is “looking into” whether Donald Trump broke state law when he said on Thursday that Liz Cheney should face rifles “shooting at her” to see how she feels about sending troops to fight. “The Arizona attorney general’s office is looking into whether Donald Trump’s comments about Liz Cheney violated Arizona law,” Richie Taylor, communications director for the AG’s office, said in a statement on Friday. “The office has no additional comments to make at this time.”
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Officials in the US battleground state of Michigan said they worry that the Democratic-leaning city of Warren could lag behind the rest of the state in reporting the results of Tuesday’s presidential election, raising early doubts about the state’s vote count. Warren, unlike Detroit and most other cities in Michigan, opted not to take advantage of changes enacted in a 2022 state law allowing for up to eight days of pre-processing of absentee ballots, Reuters reported. Instead, the city of 135,000 people will wait until election day to verify and tabulate more than 20,000 mail-in ballots.
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Elon Musk’s troubled canvassing operation on behalf of Donald Trump and the Republican party is now facing a lawsuit in southern California filed by two women who say they were cheated out of wages and expenses as they knocked on doors for an embattled Republican congresswoman. The suit accuses Musk’s America PAC, which has poured more than $100m into this year’s election campaign, of “willful violations of the California labor code” by paying the plaintiffs less than it promised and refusing to make up the difference.
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The US presidential election campaign enters its final weekend with polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in seemingly permanent deadlock and few clues as to which of them will prevail on Tuesday. At the end of another unruly week that began with Trump’s racially charged rally in New York’s Madison Square Guardian and was punctuated by celebrity endorsements, misogynistic comments and insults about “garbage” being levelled left and right, the Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed little change from seven days earlier, with voter loyalty to their chosen candidate appearing relatively impervious to campaign events, however seismic.
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That’s all from me, Tom Ambrose, for today. My colleague Cecilia Nowell will be along shortly to continue bringing you all the latest from the US election.
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Elon Musk’s troubled canvassing operation on behalf of Donald Trump and the Republican party is now facing a lawsuit in southern California filed by two women who say they were cheated out of wages and expenses as they knocked on doors for an embattled Republican congresswoman.
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The suit accuses Musk’s America PAC, which has poured more than $100m into this year’s election campaign, of “willful violations of the California labor code” by paying the plaintiffs less than it promised and refusing to make up the difference.
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The women, Tamiko Anderson and Patricia Kelly, say they were hired last month and promised an hourly wage – about $25, according to their lead lawyer – to help turn out votes for Michelle Steel, who represents a closely contested swing district in Orange county, south of Los Angeles.
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It was only once the women started working, the suit alleges, that they found out they were being paid instead by the number of houses they visited. The suit further alleges that they were not reimbursed for work-related expenses, including the use of personal cellphones to track their movements along their designated routes.
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Musk’s ground-game operation has come under repeated scrutiny in recent days following a report in the Guardian that canvassers may have skipped as many as a quarter of the houses they claimed to have visited in Arizona and Nevada, and a second report in Wired that revealed hired canvassers in Michigan were not told which campaign they were working for until they had already signed on.
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Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump head to North Carolina on Saturday to try to clinch support in the south-eastern battleground state just three days before Tuesday’s US presidential election.
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It will be the fourth day in a row that vice-president Harris and former president Trump visit the same state on the same day, underlining the critical importance of the seven states likely to decide the race, which opinion polls show to be on a knife’s edge, Reuters reported.
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More than 70 million Americans have already cast ballots, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, below the record early-voting pace in 2020 during Covid-19, but still indicating a high level of voter enthusiasm.
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Saturday also marks the last day of early voting in North Carolina, where over 3.8m votes have been cast, while the state’s western reaches are still recovering from Hurricane Helene’s deadly flooding.
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Harris plans appearances with rock star Jon Bon Jovi in Charlotte, the biggest city in North Carolina, which is tied with Georgia for the second-biggest prize of the swing states. Each has 16 votes in the Electoral College, where 270 are needed to secure the presidency.
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North Carolina backed Trump in 2020 but elected a Democratic governor on the same day, giving hope to both parties.
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Officials in the US battleground state of Michigan said they worry that the Democratic-leaning city of Warren could lag behind the rest of the state in reporting the results of Tuesday’s presidential election, raising early doubts about the state’s vote count.
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Warren, unlike Detroit and most other cities in Michigan, opted not to take advantage of changes enacted in a 2022 state law allowing for up to eight days of pre-processing of absentee ballots, Reuters reported. Instead, the city of 135,000 people will wait until election day to verify and tabulate more than 20,000 mail-in ballots.
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The potential delay from Warren has worried some Democratic leaders that it could leave the results appearing artificially high for Republican Donald Trump on Tuesday evening, and that the former president would seek to exploit the situation by falsely declaring victory in the state before all votes were in.
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“If the state is close at all and we don’t have returns from Warren, which is our third-largest city, it’s going to create all kinds of concerns,” said Mark Brewer, an attorney and the former chair of the Michigan Democratic Party. “It’s very, very worrisome.”
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The US presidential election campaign enters its final weekend with polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in seemingly permanent deadlock and few clues as to which of them will prevail on Tuesday.
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At the end of another unruly week that began with Trump’s racially charged rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden and was punctuated by celebrity endorsements, misogynistic comments and insults about “garbage” being levelled left and right, the Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed little change from seven days earlier, with voter loyalty to their chosen candidate appearing relatively impervious to campaign events, however seismic.
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Nationally, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has a one-point advantage, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, virtually identical to last week. Such an advantage is well with the margin of error of most polls.
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The battleground states, too, remain in a dead heat. The candidates are evenly tied at 48% in Pennsylvania, often seen as the most important swing state because it has the most electoral votes (19). Harris has single-point leads in the two other blue-wall states, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is marginally ahead in the Sun belt: up by 1% in North Carolina and 2% in Georgia and Arizona. In Nevada, his average advantage in the polls is less than a percentage point.
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Writing on NBC’s website, Josh Clinton, a politics professor at Vanderbilt University, and John Lapinski, the network’s director of elections, pondered whether the tied race reflected not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters. Some, they suggested, may be wary of findings indicating unusually large leads for one candidate and introduce corrective weighting.
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Of the last 321 polls in the battlegrounds, 124 – nearly 40% – showed margins of a single point or less, the pair wrote. Pennsylvania was the most “troubling” case, with 20 out of 59 polls showing an exact tie, while another 26 showed margins of less than 1%.
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This indicated “not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race”, according to Clinton and Lapinski.
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Read the full piece here:
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Top Republicans have called on the White House to produce all documents and internal communications regarding president Joe Biden’s statement earlier this week in which he appeared to take a swipe at supporters of Donald Trump.
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White House press officials altered the official transcript of Biden’s statement, drawing objections from the federal workers who document such remarks for posterity, according to two US government officials and an internal email obtained on Thursday by the Associated Press.
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The Republican lawmakers said they question whether the decision to create “a false transcript and manipulate or alter the accurate transcript” produced for the National Archives and Records Administration was a violation of federal law.
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Representative James Comer, Republican chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, and House Republican conference chair Elise Stefanik demanded the White House produce the records.
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They also called on the White House to make available for a briefing the top supervisor of its stenography office.
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Comer and Stefanik said:
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The White House cannot simply rewrite president Biden’s rhetoric.
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We are concerned with the latest reporting of the White House’s apparent political decision to protect the Biden-Harris administration, instead of following longstanding and proper protocols.
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At a Wisconsin rally on Friday, Donald Trump called Kamala Harris a “low-IQ person” and vowed to save the economy “from total obliteration” in a 1.5 hour-long meandering speech that touched on top campaign issues including the economy and foreign policy – but also featured threats to curb press freedoms and a lengthy discussion of his own rhetorical style.
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“I will stop the criminal invasion of this country,” said Trump during his opening remarks, promising to usher in a new “golden age”.
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“Can you imagine if Kamala won? You would go down to a 1929 style depression,” said Trump.
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On immigration, Trump’s message was characteristically dark. The campaign played a painful video of a mother describing her daughter’s murder and blaming Harris for allowing the accused to enter the US without authorization. Studies overwhelmingly refute Trump’s claim that immigrants are disproportionately responsible for crime in the US, but such claims are a feature of his campaign.
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“The day I take office, the migrant invasion ends,” said Trump. He vowed to launch the “largest deportation program in American history” and said cities and towns had been “conquered” by immigrants, whom he referred to as “animals”.
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Since his Madison Square Garden rally – which showcased racist and misogynistic comments from a lineup of speakers, including comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” – Trump and his allies have sought to recast the former president and his Maga base as unfairly maligned.
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“Kamala has spent the final week of her campaign comparing her political opponents to the most evil mass murderers in history,” said Trump at the Wisconsin rally.
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“Vice-president Harris thinks you are Nazis, fascists,” said the Wisconsin senator Ron Johnson, who spoke at the rally.
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Johnson praised Trump for bringing into his campaign Robert F Kennedy Jr, who ended his presidential bid as a third party candidate in August; and Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman who announced she had left the party in 2022. Johnson accused Democrats of “destroying America” and credited Trump with making “the Republican Party the party of the working men and women of America.”
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The office of Arizona Democratic attorney general Kris Mayes is “looking into” whether Donald Trump broke state law when he said on Thursday that Liz Cheney should face rifles “shooting at her” to see how she feels about sending troops to fight.
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“The Arizona attorney general’s office is looking into whether Donald Trump’s comments about Liz Cheney violated Arizona law,” Richie Taylor, communications director for the AG’s office, said in a statement on Friday. “The office has no additional comments to make at this time.”
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Trump made the comments about Cheney, one of the former president’s biggest Republican critics and the daughter of former vice-president Dick Cheney, to former Fox News Host Tucker Carlson at a campaign event in Glendale on Thursday, AP reported.
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“Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her,” Trump said. “Let’s see how she feels about it.”
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He repeated his aggressive attack at his rally in Warren, Michigan, on Friday afternoon.
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“She’s tough one. But if you gave Liz Cheney a gun, put her into battle facing the other side with guns pointing at her. She wouldn’t have the courage or the strength or the stamina to even look the enemy in the eye,” Trump said.
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“That’s why I broke up with her,” Trump commented, prompting some laughs.
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In an interview on Friday with 12News, a local television station in Arizona, Mayes said Trump’s comments were “deeply troubling.”
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“I have already asked my criminal division chief to start looking at that statement, analyzing it for whether it qualifies as a death threat under Arizona’s laws,” Mayes told 12News.
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“I’m not prepared now to say whether it was or it wasn’t, but it is not helpful as we prepare for our election and as we try to make sure that we keep the peace at our polling places and in our state,” she continued.
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Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. I’m Tom Ambrose and I will be bringing you all the latest from the campaign trail throughout this morning.
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We start with news that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris battled to woo voters in the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin on Friday, as the presidential campaign enters its final stretch.
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Harris made several appearances in Wisconsin on Friday, including one that featured the musician Cardi B, while Trump visited both Michigan and Wisconsin.
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At his rally in Warren, Michigan, on Friday afternoon, Trump tried to energize his voters, delivering an address replete with his characteristic fear-mongering about immigrants and tangents including musings about his hair.
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He repeated his aggressive attack on Liz Cheney, one day after he first said the former Republican US representative should be under fire with rifles “shooting at her”.
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Harris meanwhile sought to draw a contrast, emphasizing at a rally in Wisconsin in the afternoon that she is looking to be a political consensus builder.
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“Here is my pledge to you. Here is my pledge to you as president. I pledge to seek common ground and commonsense solutions to the challenges you face,” Harris said. “I pledge to listen to those who will be impacted by the decisions I make. I will listen to experts. I will listen to the people who disagree with me. Because, you see, unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”
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“He wants to put them in jail,” Harris said, repeating a line she’s has frequently invoked of late. “I’ll give them a seat at the table.”
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During his appearance in Warren in the afternoon and in Milwaukee in the evening, Trump repeatedly stoked fears about immigrants. In Warren, he said: “every state is a border state” and falsely claim immigrants were being flown into the south-west.
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He repeated some of his most racist tropes, saying: “All of our jobs are being taken by the migrants that come into our country illegally and many of those migrants happen to be criminals, and some of them happen to be murderers.”
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For more on last night’s events, see our full report here:
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In other news:
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Harris told her crowd at the Wisconsin State Fair Park Exposition Center that with four days to go, there was still work to do, but “we like hard work”. Minutes beforehand, during a raucous warmup, the rapper Cardi B referred to Trump as “Donnie Dunk” and told the crowd: “Trump says he’s going to protect women whether they like it or not. Well, if his definition of protection is not the freedom of choice, if his definition of protection is making sure our daughters have fewer rights than our mothers, then I don’t want it! I don’t want it! I don’t want it!”
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Earlier, Harris said Trump’s violent rhetoric about Cheney “must be disqualifying” as far as his suitability for the presidency is concerned. “Representative Cheney is a true patriot who has shown extraordinary courage in putting country above party.” Cheney for her part warned the public against dictatorship and a presidential candidate who “wants to be a tyrant”.
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Republicans’ latest offensive and misogynistic comments have boosted Democratic hopes of turning out women on election day in a contest where the rights of women have been a central issue for the Harris campaign.
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At his Milwaukee rally on Friday, Trump called Harris a “low-IQ person” and vowed to save the economy “from total obliteration” in a 1.5-hour-long meandering speech that touched on the economy and foreign policy but also featured threats to curb press freedoms and a lengthy discussion of his own rhetorical style. “I will stop the criminal invasion of this country,” said Trump, promising to usher in a new “golden age”. “Can you imagine if Kamala won? You would go down to a 1929-style depression.”
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Trump’s supporters are laying the ground for rejecting the result of the election if he loses, according to warnings from Democrats as well as anti-Maga Republicans. As well as baseless and/or failed lawsuits, suspicions have been voiced over partisan polls run by groups with Republican links in battleground states that mainly show Trump leading – the idea being that if Trump loses, the polls can be proferred as “evidence” that he was cheated out of the win.
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The New York author and journalist Michael Wolff has released audio tapes that appear to detail how Trump had a close social relationship with the late sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein that he has long denied. Wolff says the recordings were made during a 2017 discussion with Epstein about writing his biography. Epstein died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges two years later. Trump’s campaign said the claims, made on Wolff’s podcast Fire and Fury, amounted to “outlandish false smears”.
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A federal judge rejected an attempt by Elon Musk’s America Pac to have charges of running an illegal lottery heard in federal court, instead of the courts of Pennsylvania, where Musk is running the sweepstakes to help Trump get re-elected. The case has been sent back to the Pennsylvania state court for a further hearing on Monday.
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Racism and misogyny; a firing squad death threat to a former congresswoman; the Republican candidate for president dressing up as a sanitation worker in the cab of a garbage truck. Donald Trump’s final full week on the campaign trail was as unedifying as it was bizarre – Richard Luscombe sums it up.
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A valuable Republican voting bloc in Arizona is seeing a shift of its members towards Harris in numbers that Democrats believe could make the difference for them in an election where the latest polls have Trump slightly ahead. That bloc is the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints – the Mormons.
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Key events
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Politics tamfitronics Closing summary
Thanks for joining us today. This has been Cecilia Nowell reporting on the latest US elections headlines this Saturday.
Here’s a summary of the day:
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In a startling reversal, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters as the presidential race comes down to its final days.
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Vaccine skeptic Robert F Kennedy Jr – who was recently reported to be up for a role in US health and food safety in Trump’s administration – said in a social media post that he would remove fluoride from all public water if Trump wins the election.
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Harris and Trump criss-crossed the country today, as both candidates tried to drum up support in the final weekend ahead of the presidential election. Both candidates began the day in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, before Harris departed for Atlanta and then Charlotte, North Carolina. Trump also traveled to North Carolina, before heading to a rally in Virginia.
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Both candidates’ running mates appeared at events in Nevada and Arizona. Tim Waltz knocked on doors in Henderson, Nevada, before speaking alongside Indigenous leaders in Flagstaff and then courting Latino voters in Tucson. Meanwhile, JD Vance spoke in Las Vegas before heading to a gun store in Scottsdale.
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Americans took to the streets in cities across the country for a day of women’s marches. Marches were planned in all 50 states for the eighth annual gathering, which began the day after Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2017.
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Joe Biden spoke at a carpenters’ union in his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was joined by his granddaughter, a sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania.
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The national guard is on standby in at least three states – Washington, Oregon and Nevada – and Washington DC as the election approaches, as fears of civil unrest grow.
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A record number of wealthy Americans are planning to leave the country as election day approaches, NBC News reports, citing fears that the election could spur political and social unrest regardless of its outcome.
Diana Ramirez-Simon
In Tucson, Arizona, Tim Walz has pulled out his “mind your own damn business” mantra again.
“This guy is not John McCain’s Republican party,” he said, referring to Trump’s policies. “He means government should have the freedom to be in your exam room, to be in your bedroom, to tell you what books to read and make those decisions. If they just mind their own damn business, we’ll mind our own damn business and we’ll all be better.”
Politics tamfitronics Harris now leads Trump in new Iowa poll
Diana Ramirez-Simon
The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, a startling reversal for political analysts who had all but written off the state as a win for Republicans.
The poll shows Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters as the presidential race comes down to its final days.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, said to the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co from 28-31 October. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Michelle Obama has taken the stage at a rally in Montgomery county in Pennsylvania.
She was preceded by musician Alicia Keyswho encouraged the crowd to keep fighting for feminist causes. “This is not some dystopian Netflix show I’m talking about. This is the platform the other side is running on. They want to turn back the clock,” Keys said, hinting at the points in Project 2025.
Watch Obama live here:
Michelle Obama is campaigning again for Kamala Harris this afternoon alongside singer Alicia Keys at an event in Norristown, Pennsylvania.
Earlier today, supporters were gathered outside the local high school where Obama will appear.
Diana Ramirez-Simon
Trump has wrapped up his speech in Salem, Virginia, in his usual manner, reciting his Maga chants that have come to mark the ends of his rallies: “We will make America great again … we will make America strong again!”
This time, he has pointedly added a new chant before leaving the stage: “We will make America healthy again!”, perhaps in reference to recent reports that Robert F Kennedy Jr could assume some control over US health and food safety in a second Trump administration.
According to the Washington Post, Kennedy has met with Trump transition officials to help draw up an agenda for a new administration and could take a broad “health tsar” position that would not require confirmation by the Senate.
Diana Ramirez-Simon
Tim Waltz has made his fifth visit to Arizona for a final campaign pitch for Kamala Harris as the US 2024 presidential race enters its final days.
Harris and Trump are locked in a fierce battle for the swing state and have made several trips to court voters. According to the website FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Harris by 2.2 points in the state. More than 1.2 million Arizonans have already cast their ballots in this election.
Walz was in Flagstaff earlier this evening and is about to take the stage in Tucson. Watch live here:
As the candidates continue a busy day of events, Donald Trump and Tim Walz are still expected to make at least one more appearance each this evening. Trump is returning to North Carolina, where he’ll speak at a rally in Greensboro at 7.30pm ET while Walz heads to Tucson, Arizona.
Politics tamfitronics RFK Jr vows to remove fluoride from public water
In a post on X, Robert F Kennedy Jr has said that he would remove fluoride from all public water if Donald Trump is elected and gives him responsibility over the nation’s health agencies.
“Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease,” Kennedy wrote.
Although fluoride is associated with some health issues, dentists strongly recommend adding it to public water to prevent tooth decay. Fluoride is naturally occurring in drinking water at varying levels.
US district judge Edward Chen ruled on 24 September that the Environmental Protection Agency must take action regarding fluoride in drinking water, claiming his finding does not “conclude with certainty” any harmful effects but that there is evidence of the risk of cognitive decline.
The ruling stems from an August report from the Department of Health and Human Service’s National Toxicology Program, which found that drinking water that contained more than twice the recommended limit of fluoride was “consistently associated” with lower IQ in children.
Despite this ruling, the American Dental Association said in a statement in September that it remains “staunchly in support” of adding fluoride to community drinking water to help prevent tooth decay.
Diana Ramirez-Simon
Speaking to the crowd in Virginia, Trump is once again fixated on his hair. “I’m having a bad hair day! I have to have a bad hair day in front of Virginia? That’s not good,” Trump said, turning around presumably to look into a monitor that shows the back of his head.
Trump’s hair – and his appearance, in general – has lately become a standard talking point during his long and rambling campaign speeches – although he insists he does not ramble but employs a style of speech he calls “the weave”.
Donald Trump has implied that elections are rigged in blue states such as California and New York, falsely claiming that election officials will be executed if they ask to see voter ID.
“If we had an honest election in California, we would win California,” he said.
Speaking at his rally in Salem, Virginia, Donald Trump has denounced a trans woman who was allowed to join Roanoke College’s women’s swim team last year. He said that seven members of the college’s swim team had joined him backstage, before welcoming the teammates to the stage.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have advocated for and pushed for this anti-woman sex-based discrimination to continue all over this country,” swimmer Lily Mullens said. “We are so lucky to have a leader like Donald Trump with common sense,” she said, thanking the ex-president for “standing with women”.
Politics tamfitronics Donald Trump takes the stage at a rally in Virginia
Donald Trump has taken the stage at his second rally of the day, this time in Salem, Virginia – a state that his rival Kamala Harris is leading by a wide margin.
“We win Virginia, we win the whole thing without question,” Trump said. “It’s very possible that without winning Virginia we’re going to win the whole thing too.”
Trump was introduced by Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, who led attendees in a prayer before the ex-president began speaking.
Campaigning in Scottsdale, Arizona, JD Vance has called on voters to “make this thing too big to rig”. He focused much of his remarks on immigration, an issue that is central to many Arizona voters.
In a new video, actor Harrison Ford has endorsed Kamala Harris.
“Look, I’ve been voting for 64 years. Never wanted to talk about it very much,” Ford said, before referencing the former Trump administration officials who’ve denounced the ex-president.
“I’ve got one vote – same as anyone else – and I’m going to use it to move forward. I’m going to vote for Kamala Harris.”