Biden passes the torch: From the Politics Desk

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On July 23, 2024

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Welcome to a special Sunday edition of From the Politics Desk, bringing you NBC News’ latest reporting and analysis on President Joe Biden’s monumental decision to drop out of the 2024 race.

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Biden drops out and endorses Harris, upending the 2024 election

President Joe Biden delivered a political earthquake Sunday afternoon, announcing that he would end his re-election campaign. The decision brings an abrupt and humbling conclusion to his half-century-long political career and scrambles the race for the White House just four months before Election Day.

Peter Nicholas writes that the 81-year-old Biden ultimately could not reverse growing sentiment within his party that he was too frail to serve and was destined to lose to Donald Trump in November. He backed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic nominee.

“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote in a letter posted on X. “I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.”

Biden thanked Harris for “being an extraordinary partner” in his letter and then endorsed her in a subsequent post. The two spoke multiple times Sunday ahead of the announcement, according to a source familiar with the campaign.

Harris in the driver’s seat: Biden’s endorsement of Harris, 59, puts her at the front of the pack to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. Harris, the first female vice president, would become the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to become a major-party nominee, Dareh Gregorian and Yamiche Alcindor note.

But Biden’s support is no means the final word in the matter.

As Alex Seitz-Wald and Ben Kamisar explainwhile Biden won virtually all of the delegates to next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago and was the party’s presumptive nominee, he relinquishes that title by stepping aside and has no direct power over choosing whom those delegates will officially nominate.

That’s because the convention delegates, the people who actually pick the Democratic Party’s nominee, are not bound by any law or party rules to back the candidate they’re pledged to support. They only have to “in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

It’s far from clear any prominent Democrats will challenge Harris in what could be a murky process for replacing Biden, Sahil Kapur reports. And if the party coalesces around her, then some of those future presidential prospects could become contenders for her vice presidential pick.

While some — like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — quickly endorsed Harris Sunday, other rumored or would-be candidates — like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — are keeping their cards close to the vest, with most of them refraining from discussing Biden’s succession.

Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia — who left the Democratic Party to become an independent earlier this year — is considering a run for the party’s nomination, Julie Tsirkin reports.

How Democrats are responding: Top Democrats on Sunday praised Biden for his accomplishments in the White House, saying he cemented his legacy, Rebecca Shabad reports.

Democratic leaders were split over endorsing Harris. Former President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did not back her immediately.

Meanwhile, Rep. James Clyburn, former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton quickly threw their support behind Harris.

How Republicans are responding: In an interview with Garrett HaakeTrump said Biden “is the worst president in the history of the United States by far.”

Meanwhile, other Republicans argued that if Biden isn’t fit to run for another term, he should also resign the presidency, Sahil Kapoor notes.

How voters are responding: Some Biden supporters who spoke to NBC News on Sunday afternoon said they were disappointed in his decision, while others who had planned to vote for him were energized by the idea that a different candidate could fare better against Trump.

What a year this month has been: From the debate to the drop-out, Shannon Pettypiece and Mark Murray outline how the past 25 days completely upended American politics.

Follow along with the latest developments on our live blog →

Biden, once considered too young to serve, now too old to win

By Peter Nicholas

So ends the half-century career of a flawed but resilient politician who won the White House in a razor-thin election and lost it four years later in a debate: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.

Biden, 81, now eases into a lame-duck presidency for the next six months, as the party he once commanded abandoned him in the span of a few weeks for an as-yet-unnamed candidate to carry the fight against Trump.

Stunning as his fall may be, Biden may be better prepared than most to deal with repudiation. Few presidents in history have endured as much tragedy and disappointment as the 46th.

Biden’s life has careened between unexpected triumph and unimaginable loss. He won elections and lost them. He built a family, lost part of it, rebuilt it and lost part of it once more.

Hardened by experience, Biden seems to grasp that political partnerships are transactional: They come with expiration dates.

If you want a friend in Washington, “get a dog,” Biden said at an NAACP convention on July 16, invoking Democratic President Harry Truman’s famous dictum.

How Harris fares against Trump in the 2024 polls

By Mark Murray

A looming challenge for Harris: She has been polling the same as Biden against Trump — or just slightly better — according to multiple surveys taken before Biden withdrew from the contest.

And Biden was running behind Trump in many national and battleground-state polls — which precipitated his withdrawal.

In NBC News’ latest national pollconducted more than a week after Biden’s dismal debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump, both Biden and Harris trailed Trump by 2-point margins among registered voters, though the actual percentages for each candidate were slightly different.

Trump led Biden 45% to 43%, while he took 47% to Harris’ 45% in their matchup. Both ballot tests fell within the poll’s margin of error.

Similarly, a post-debate national Fox News poll found Trump ahead by 1 point against both Biden (Trump 49%, Biden 48%) and Harris (Trump 49%, Harris 48%) among registered voters.

But other polls have shown Harris slightly outperforming Biden by 1 or 2 points — though, critically, still trailing Trump at this point in some key matchups.

A national CBS News/YouGov poll of likely voters conducted after the assassination attempt found Trump leading Biden by 5 points among likely voters, 52% to 47%, while it showed Harris trailing by 3 points, 51% to 48%.

And in New York Times/Siena College battleground polls of Pennsylvania and Virginia, Harris performed 2 points better than Biden did among likely voters in those two states.

Importantly, each result is within each poll’s margin of error — and so is the difference between Biden’s and Harris’ numbers. Also important: It’s possible those numbers could change after the news of Biden’s exit from the race. But for the moment, Biden’s numbers and Harris’ numbers look quite similar.