7 key forces shaping the final days of the election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the most important polling dynamics that are defining the final stage of the presidential race. Plus, senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas examines how Barack Obama’s message may not be hitting home with hid intended audience.

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7 key forces shaping the final days of the election

By Mark Murray

With two weeks until Election Day, the polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential race — the results are that close, and surveys from previous cycles were that off, especially in 2020.

But there’s still plenty we can learn from them. The national and battleground state polls have revealed several important dynamics that have defined the campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

1. Inflation remains voters’ top concern, but abortion is a top motivating issue.

No matter the poll, voters consistently say that the cost of living is their top concern, usually followed by threats to democracy, immigration and the economy in general.

But when this month’s national NBC News poll asked a different question — Is there one issue that so motivates you that you’d vote for or against a candidate solely on that issue? — abortion jumped to the top of the list.

2. The gender gap is real.

Female voters are backing Harris by 14 points, while Trump is winning men by 16 points, according to the latest NBC News poll. That combined 30-point gender gap is larger than what the exit polls showed in 2016 and 2020.

It’s especially important to pay attention to white women with college degrees, who are supporting Harris by a whopping 28 points in the October NBC News poll.

3. Trump has made gains with Latino and Black voters.

While Harris and Democrats have made further inroads with white women with college degrees, they’ve lost ground with Latino voters and (by a smaller amount) Black voters.

Which shift is larger, especially in key battleground states, could ultimately decide the presidential race.

4. Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s.

This remains one of the most important forces shaping this election: Trump’s retrospective job approval rating (48%) is higher than President Joe Biden’s current job approval rating (43%), per this month’s NBC News poll.

5. Harris is more popular than Trump.

That said, Harris continues to be more popular than Trump, though the gap between them depends on the poll.

The October NBC News poll showed Harris with a net favorability rating that’s only 2 points higher than Trump’s (down from 16 points in September). But a new Associated Press poll found Harris with a net popularity advantage of 22 points.

6. The third-party vote share has gotten smaller.

When Biden was in the race, polls found third-party presidential candidates winning double-digit support. But that’s now dropped to just 4 to 5 points.

This could be consequential in a close election, given that a sizable third-party vote in 2016 enabled Trump to win key battleground states with 47% to 48% of the vote.

7. Voters are divided over whether Harris or Trump is the change candidate.

Of all these storylines, this could be the most important in a contest between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump): Who is the change candidate?

The October NBC News poll showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, on who better represents change.

But more voters (43%) said their bigger concern was that Harris would follow the same approach as Biden, versus the voters (41%) who said their bigger concern was Trump continuing the same approach as his first term in office.

Obama on the campaign trail has one particularly tough crowd: Young Black men

By Peter Nicholas

TUCSON, Ariz. — If there’s a prototypical Kamala Harris voter it might seem to be Charles Johnson, a 23-year-old Black college student.

Johnson is informed and politically engaged; he went to hear former President Barack Obama speak Friday at a Democratic campaign rally on the University of Arizona campus.

Yet he isn’t all that impressed with Obama, the nation’s first Black president, nor Harris, who would be the second. He says he’s leaning toward voting for Donald Trump.

“The media says he [Trump] is horrible and he’s racist and he’s going to bring us back, but he’s only gaining support with Black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “He’s only gaining support with Black men.”

Democrats have been unnerved by recent polls that show Harris’ numbers sagging among Black voters, particularly young Black men. As he campaigns for Harris, one of Obama’s tasks is to persuade Black men like Johnson that voting for Trump would be a grievous mistake. In the remaining days before the election, he’ll be doing interviews with podcasters and various internet personalities who command a large Black following, an Obama aide said.

“Black male voters have an enormous amount of respect and admiration for President Obama and they will be attentive to what his message is,” said Joel Benenson, a former Obama campaign pollster. “What’s implicit in his message is, ‘You’ve got to rally around her the way you rallied around me.’ That’s the message they’re going to get, and that will be helpful.

It’s not certain, though, that Obama’s target audience is listening. A younger generation of Black Americans may have seen little of Obama, possessing only a dim recollection of a presidency that ended nearly eight years ago.

At a pair of rallies in Tucson and Las Vegas in recent days, Obama drew thousands of cheering supporters, though the turnout among young Black men appeared sparse.

When it comes to this distinct slice of the electorate, Obama may not be the compelling messenger he once was, some in attendance said.

Read more from Peter →

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