How one group is trying to weaken Harris’ standing with Black voters: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks the news of a conservative group’s new campaign aimed at denting Kamala Harris’ numbers with Black voters. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down how Democrats’ path to victory in North Carolina has changed since 2008.

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How one group is trying to weaken Harris’ standing with Black voters

By Ben Kamisar

A conservative nonprofit group plans to spend $10 million in the hopes of chipping away at Vice President Kamala Harris’ key base of Black voter support by criticizing the White House’s proposal to ban menthol cigarettes.

The new ad campaign from Building America’s Future and Americans for Consumer Protection, described to NBC News by a Building America’s Future official, will primarily target Black voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Through digital advertising, text messages and direct mail, the message will try to frame the Biden-Harris administration as out of touch for focusing on a menthol cigarette ban over other issues.

“Instead of solving the problems that matter to you, Kamala Harris and D.C. Democrats are coming after your menthol cigarettes,” a narrator in a new digital ad says.

“We’ve got bigger problems to deal with, and so do Democrats,” the ad continues, with headlines about the “border crisis” and the “fentanyl crisis” displayed on the screen.

While the Biden administration proposed the ban in 2021, it delayed its implementation in April. Black smokers are significantly more likely to use menthol cigarettes, according to government data, and the proposed ban has divided civil rights and health care groups.

Republicans see messaging like this as a potential way to blunt Harris’ consolidation of her party’s base, as she remains locked in a tight race against former President Donald Trump.

“Vice President Harris’ coronation completely reset this race because she was able to consolidate the Democrats’ most important constituency — Black voters,” Ryan Tyson, the head of the Tyson Group, wrote in a memo shared with NBC News by Building America’s Future summarizing the group’s recent polling.

“A way Republicans can combat Harris’ rise in the polls is to drive Blacks away from her,” he continued. “Highlighting Harris’ support for a ban on menthol cigarettes could be the niche message that can get this done.”

The Harris campaign did not provide a comment when asked whether she would seek to implement the ban if she wins the White House.

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Democrats will need to follow a different path than Obama’s to win North Carolina

By Steve Kornacki

All year, Democrats have talked up the idea of North Carolina being a core battleground state. And now, polls suggest it is one and Republicans are behaving like they believe it.

“I have that 2008 feeling,” Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper told NBC News recently, referring to Barack Obama’s narrow win in North Carolina that year — the last time Democrats carried the state in a presidential election.

Of course, the state and its political geography have changed over the last 16 years. If they’re going to produce a 2008-like result this year, Democrats will have to forge a different path than the one Obama took.

One way to look at this: Overall, North Carolina shifted by just 1.66 percentage points from 2008 (when Obama won by 0.32 points) to 2020 (when Trump won by 1.34 points). But in 76 of the state’s 100 counties, the margin moved more than 5 points in the Republicans’ direction. And in 57 of them, the shift was at least 10 points in the GOP’s favor.

These GOP surge counties are spread around the state. Many of them are smaller and more rural, with substantial populations of white blue-collar voters. In 2008, Obama was able to run reasonably competitively in these counties. Collectively, he lost them by 17 points to John McCain. By 2020, though, Joe Biden was crushed in them by 35 points. This mirrors the national trend of white voters without college degrees moving toward the GOP, and Trump in particular.

Meanwhile, Democratic growth from 2008 to 2020 is much more concentrated. There are only seven counties in the state where the margin moved more than 5 points in the party’s direction, all of which are in higher population metropolitan areas:

Democrats are boosted in these counties by large Black populations and above-average concentrations of white voters with college degrees — again, mirroring a national trend.

These counties are not just big, they are growing rapidly. Democrats came within 74,483 votes of beating Trump in North Carolina in 2020; they hope that four years of growth and further improvement in their margins will more than erase that gap. Of course, Republicans have so far managed to offset these Democratic gains with their own surge areas and could do so again this year.

A major question surrounds the Black vote, particularly in smaller, rural areas. In total, 17 counties in North Carolina currently have a Black population of at least 35%.

In 2008, Obama benefited from enormous Black turnout in these counties and won them cumulatively by 15.5 points. (These counties also tend to have substantial GOP-friendly blue-collar white populations.) In 2020, Biden carried these same counties by only 11.2 points. Whether Harris posts an Obama- or Biden-like margin in these counties could end up being the decisive question in North Carolina.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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