I wanted to do a short post on expectations setting now that we’ve absorbed the stunning and sometimes euphoric news of the last forty eight hours. What will the polls say about this new race? What are Harris’s chances of winning? As David has rightly states, we’re truly flying blind here. There are so many unprecedented variables we can’t be certain about anything. My own best guess is that we should be not so much expecting but prepared to see Harris roughly where Joe Biden was before the late June debate. That speculation is based mostly on the fact that the polls have mostly been driven by the size of the Republican and Democratic voting blocks with a large percentage of voters supporting third party candidates.

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