Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Will ‘Wicked’ Defy Gravity for Awards Attention?

VarietyAwards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Top Stories Tamfitronics 2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 31, 2024): Universal Pictures’ “Wicked,” Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the hit Broadway musical, has dropped onto the awards landscape. The film’s leads, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, are also earning raves across the board as the musical launch them into their respective categories as acting contenders.

Edward Berger’s mystery thriller “Conclave” has been one of the buzziest films to emerge from the fall festivals. Adapted from Robert Harris’ 2016 novel, the film premiered at Telluride, where it received raves from attendees. Since then, its awards prospects have grown, especially following its Audience Award wins at the Mill Valley and Middleburg fests. Those regional accolades helped propel future best picture nominees such as “American Fiction” (2023) and “Belfast” (2021) and best picture winner “Green Book” (2018). “Conclave” has widespread appeal and could be a viable candidate in the race.

Paramount Pictures is also gaining momentum with Ridley Scott’s epic sequel “Gladiator II,” which could bring the veteran auteur filmmaker his first statuette after losing for the 2001 best picture winner.

And then there’s Netflix. The streamer has long been chasing the elusive Academy Award for best picture, and after a series of near misses, 2024 might be the year the streaming giant claims the coveted prize. With Jacques Audiard’s critically lauded crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” they’re giving it their all with a movie that could be an across-the-board contender (if the musical aspect doesn’t keep haters of the genre at a distance).

Awards season is underway, and the Gotham Awards nominations are only a tiny blip of what could be on Oscar voter’s radar.

The slate of feature film nominees, with Sean Baker’s hilarious and moving dramedy “Anora” leading the charge with four nods, is yet another compelling reason to think that the Neon-distributed Palme d’Or winner has what it takes to go all the way in the race.

Below are the updated rankings of contenders. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.