model – Tamfis

New Theoretical Model Calculates Chances of Intelligent Life in Our Universe and Beyond

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In 1961, American astrophysicist and astrobiologist Dr. Frank Drake devised an equation in which several factors are multiplied together to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in our Milky Way Galaxy capable of making their presence known to humans. More than 60 years on, astrophysicists have produced a different model which instead focuses on the conditions created by the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion and the amount of stars formed. It is thought this expansion is being driven by dark energy that makes up more than two thirds of the Universe.

Top Stories Tamfitronics Artistic impression of a Multiverse. Image credit: Jaime Salcido / EAGLE Collaboration.

Artistic impression of a Multiverse. Image credit: Jaime Salcido / EAGLE Collaboration.

“Understanding dark energy and the impact on our Universe is one of the biggest challenges in cosmology and fundamental physics,” said Dr. Daniele Sorini, a researcher at Durham University’s Institute for Computational Cosmology.

“The parameters that govern our Universe, including the density of dark energy, could explain our own existence.”

Since stars are a precondition for the emergence of life as we know it, the team’s new model could be used to estimate the probability of generating intelligent life in our Universe, and in a multiverse scenario of hypothetical different universes.

The new research does not attempt to calculate the absolute number of observers (i.e. intelligent life) in the Universe but instead considers the relative probability of a randomly chosen observer inhabiting a universe with particular properties.

It concludes that a typical observer would expect to experience a substantially larger density of dark energy than is seen in our own Universe — suggesting the ingredients it possesses make it a rare and unusual case in the multiverse.

The approach presented in the paper involves calculating the fraction of ordinary matter converted into stars over the entire history of the Universe, for different dark energy densities.

The model predicts this fraction would be approximately 27% in a universe that is most efficient at forming stars, compared to 23% in our own Universe.

This means we don’t live in the hypothetical Universe with the highest odds of forming intelligent life forms.

Or in other words, the value of dark energy density we observe in our Universe is not the one that would maximise the chances of life, according to the model.

“Surprisingly, we found that even a significantly higher dark energy density would still be compatible with life, suggesting we may not live in the most likely of universes,” Dr. Sorini said.

The model could allow scientists to understand the effects of differing densities of dark energy on the formation of structures in the Universe and the conditions for life to develop in the cosmos.

Dark energy makes the Universe expand faster, balancing gravity’s pull and creating a universe where both expansion and structure formation are possible.

However, for life to develop, there would need to be regions where matter can clump together to form stars and planets, and it would need to remain stable for billions of years to allow life to evolve.

Crucially, the research suggests that the astrophysics of star formation and the evolution of the large-scale structure of the Universe combine in a subtle way to determine the optimal value of the dark energy density needed for the generation of intelligent life.

“It will be exciting to employ the model to explore the emergence of life across different universes and see whether some fundamental questions we ask ourselves about our own Universe must be reinterpreted,” said Université de Genève’s Professor Lucas Lombriser.

The study was published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

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Daniele Sorini et al. 2024. The impact of the cosmological constant on past and future star formation. MNRAS 535 (2): 1449-1474; doi: 10.1093/mnras/stae2236

Former Model Who Quit ‘Party-Girl’ Life in L.A. to Live In an Off-Grid Bus With Her Baby Says She’s Saving Thousands in Rent—and Is Happier Than Ever

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NASA unveils model of LISA, a satellite array for studying ripples in space-time

NASA Space Technology

NASA has released new images of the full-scale prototypes of six telescopes slated to observe some of the universe’s tiniest fluctuations. On October 22, the agency showed off mock-ups of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a European Space Agency-led project slated to embark on its mission around 2035. While not the final working equipment meant to measure gravitational waves, the mock-up offers glimpses of a design that will likely resemble the machine array destined to help astronomers discover potentially groundbreaking insights into the universe and its origins.

NASA Space Technology A close view of a prototype LISA telescope. — A closer view of the full-scale prototype LISA telescope in a clean room at NASA Goddard. The telescope’s translucent, amber-colored material glows as an engineer behind it inspects the structure with a flashlight. A gold-coated mirror, near center, reflects a magnified image of part of the telescope. Credit: NASA / Dennis Henry Denny Henry

NASA Space Technology Clean room technicians move a prototype LISA telescope. Credit: NASA / Dennis Henry — On May 20, the full-scale Engineering Development Unit Telescope for the LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) mission, still in its shipping frame, was moved within a clean room at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Credit: NASA / Dennis Henry Denny Henry

In about a decade’s time, three carefully arranged spacecraft, each containing two telescopes, are slated to begin firing infrared laser beams 1.6 million miles between one another to measure the effects of cosmic gravitational waves. The ESA and NASA hope LISA will reveal new information from ripples in spacetime that span just trillionths of a meter. The intricacies of supermassive black holes, binary star collisions, and even the universe’s earliest moments may reside in LISA’s data—but before that, NASA needs to make sure their overall designs are flawless.

[Related:[Related:ESA will send a triangle of satellites into space to study gravitational waves.]

On Wednesday, the agency showed off its mock-ups of the LISA spacecraft, called the Engineering Development Unit Telescope. Ryan DeRosa, a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, explained in an accompanying statement that the “prototype… will guide us as we work toward building the flight hardware.”

NASA Space Technology An ESA fnfographic provides information on gravitational waves and how the LISA mission will measure them using laser beams and free-floating cubes. Credit: ESA / ATG Medialab — *An ESA fnfographic provides information on gravitational waves and how the LISA mission will measure them using laser beams and free-floating cubes. Credit: ESA / ATG Medialab*

While each spacecraft will ultimately contain a solid, gold-platinum cube to help reflect laser beams traveling distances wider than the Sun, NASA commissioned its Engineering Development Unit Telescope on a smaller budget. The prototype is constructed entirely from an amber-hued glass-ceramic composite known as Zerodur and sourced from Germany. Meanwhile, the equipment telescope’s primary mirror is still coated in gold to help reflect the lasers while reducing heat loss—according to NASA, the telescope needs to counter deep space’s harsh environment, since it operates best when at room temperature.

[Related:[Related:Gravitational waves just showed us something even cooler than black holes.]

There are still a few years until LISA launches aboard an Ariane 6 rocket from the ESA’s spaceport in French Guiana. Even so, full-scale test-builds like NASA’s Engineering Development Unit Telescope help ensure the actual spacecraft will be best equipped to aid experts in studying some of the most delicate forces in the universe.

A new model for public private partnerships

The PFI problem child

At its core, ()the old PFI model made sense, but it remains controversial. Early PFI contracts were often complex and lengthy, making it difficult to flex them to meet the evolving needs of a project through its delivery cycle. Ultimately, that model became a barrier to progress.

“The prospect of a remodelled form of PFI offers a great opportunity for the construction industry”

The public-private relationships involved in these partnerships have sometimes led to disputes over who is responsible for maintenance costs and repairs. This highlighted tensions, especially in situations where public authorities had limited experience of the PFI structure.

The new Labour government has introduced a National Wealth Fund as part of its plan to ‘get Britain building again’. This will see billions of pounds invested in projects across the UK to foster growth and unlock developments in key sectors and geographical areas. It has been designed to attract a mixture of investment, aiming for around £3 of private funding for every £1 of taxpayer money. It’s an ambitious plan that will place additional strain on a public purse already with a historically high level of debt.

But the government’s plans for growth through public construction projects also provides a perfect opportunity to review the merits of a new form of public private partnership (PPP) – one that would alleviate the burden on taxpayers and provide new investment opportunities for institutional investors eager to deploy capital that delivers against their long-term liability-matching obligations.

An alternative vision

In terms of a new PFI structure, there is already a helpful alternative to PFI in existence. In 1990, the Scottish government introduced the non-profit distributing (NPD) model, which is being successfully applied to new infrastructure projects, predominantly in the education, health and transport sectors. Unlike PFI, the NPD model prioritises delivery of value for money to the public sector rather than profit. While the private sector still plays a role in designing, building, financing and occasionally operating the infrastructure, any profits earned by the project company are reinvested into the project.

Models like NPD aim to address concerns about long-term costs by encouraging a more collaborative approach. By sharing risks and rewards between public and private partners, the NPD model has the potential to incentivise efficiency and cost-effectiveness. It also gives the public sector greater control over project management and the ability to prioritise public needs. This has been a concerning factor in PFI structures, where the private sector was perceived to have a disproportionate influence over the delivery of public services. The NPD model also offers a greater degree of flexibility than traditional PFI contracts, which is better suited to the delivery of complex projects that inevitably evolve and change over the length of their delivery lifecycle.

Upside for the construction industry

The prospect of a remodelled form of PFI offers a great opportunity for the construction industry, as well as social benefits arising from the efficient provision of key public sector buildings and infrastructure. The use of private capital would – as it did in the past – create a long-term pipeline of projects. This would enable the industry to better plan its forward workload, enabling it to invest in itself to improve productivity.

A further important and often-overlooked benefit of PFI was the need for close integration of design and long-term operational efficiency through optimised whole-life costs. Such an approach requires contractors and designers to collaborate to achieve the lowest ‘whole-life’ cost of a building, balancing the initial capital cost with the long-term cost of replacing components throughout its operational life.

This represents a huge opportunity for the industry to forge closer, more collaborative design and construction processes that recognise three things: the direct cost of building renewal/maintenance; the initial and long-term impacts of embedded carbon; and the consumption of carbon through the choice of power, and environmental systems and controls.

For a new PFI/ PPP structure to be successful, it is vital that a new approach to collaboration is firmly established. In particular, clear performance metrics will need to be defined and project outcomes tracked to ensure value for money and public benefit. Open communication and knowledge transfer are crucial to building public trust and acceptance. But new models such as NPD could overcome the limitations of traditional PFIs. Ultimately, they would enable a more sustainable and successful approach to UK infrastructure delivery in the long term.

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