Kurl: Focusing on Chrystia Freeland’s fate? The stupid season has hit Canadian politics

If you will, a summer dispatch from a childless cat lady (except I have no cats, and I prefer the term single girl) who writes to inform that we’ve officially entered stupid season in federal politics.

It’s a time when the national conversation could and should be about literally anything other than what is, or rather, what isn’t, happening in Ottawa.

But for now, bored politicos (they collectively need a banana and nap) are resurrecting their favourite parlour game: speculating on the future career prospects of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, by further speculating on the ways and means by which Mark Carney might somehow enter the Liberal cabinet and join the team.

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Watching American rap gods Snoop Dogg and Flavor Flav live their best lives at the Paris games would be a more sustaining pastime through these slower days. So many political lessons to be learned about key messaging, branding and authenticity!

Or, if this does not seem substantive enough, surely there’s enough breathless speculation over the Democratic ticket veep-stakes to keep one suitably occupied.

Barring that, could we talk about whatever it is that’s happening in opposition land? Has Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre handed his X account to a confused intern? What else could account for some of his latest posts, including a very odd one on communism.

But no, the talk show hosts wanna talk about the “Freeland factor.” Fine, let us examine once more all the ways dumping the current finance minister would be akin to the prime minister shooting himself in the foot.

Say what you will about the finance minister’s efficacy in policy or as a political communicator, but to suggest she is somehow singlehandedly responsible for what has ailed the Liberals in their sustained unpopularity for more than two years — or that her removal would cure it — is imbecilic. The Liberals are where they are after nearly nine years of government building a cult of personality around the prime minister himself. He’s had his ups and his downs and recovered again. But by now, Canadians are simply tired of him.

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Combine this with a persistent cost-of-living crisis that has a money-stressed population laying blame on whoever happens to be in charge at both the provincial and federal levels; and a perceived failure on the part of Trudeau to adequately respond. They’re also not listening to whichever political messengers are being sent to defend this government’s record. Jettisoning a lieutenant when the problematic general endures solves nothing.

Further, is the prime minister really going to swap one of his few remaining heavy-hitting female cabinet ministers for a man? Note that last year’s major cabinet shuffle, aimed at resetting Liberal fortunes and achieving nothing of the sort, maintained its gender parity in spirit only. The most senior ranks were filled by men, more junior roles went to women. Anita Anand was demoted from defence, leaving only Freeland and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly in the top tier. To replace Freeland at this stage would further alienate female voters, once a rock-solid support base for Trudeau but more recently breaking for both Poilievre and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh. Jettisoning the finance minister would be folly. If only because it’s 2024.

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Jettisoning the finance minister would be folly. If only because it’s 2024.

And finally, the Carney factor itself. What would-be successor in his right mind would captain what is clearly a sinking ship when he has the option of meeting repair teams on drydock and making his own improvements before sailing again? At present, Carney as turnaround artist is not exactly capturing the imaginations of Canadian voters. A mere five per cent of soft Liberal voters say Carney coming into government (indeed, replacing Trudeau) would make them more likely to lock in for the Liberals once more.

It’s time to confiscate the politicos’ screens, bundle them into the back of a station wagon with little more than analog toys, a playlist, and directions to the cottage. They need some summer rest. And so do we.

Shachi Kurlis President of the Angus Reid Institutea national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation.

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