5 areas outside the battlegrounds that show how Trump expanded his coalition: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the blue areas across the country where Donald Trump expanded his coalition. Plus, senior national politics reporter Matt Dixon explores the domino effect in Florida of Trump’s expected nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio to be secretary of state.

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5 areas outside the battlegrounds that show how Trump expanded his coalition

By Steve Kornacki

Donald Trump swept the seven core battleground states, but it’s the gains he made outside the swing states — especially in some of the biggest, bluest parts of the country — that have him poised to become the first Republican in 20 years to carry the national popular vote. These five jurisdictions help tell the story of where and how Trump expanded his coalition the most dramatically.

Osceola County, Florida

Population: 388,000

2024 result: Trump +1.5

2020 result: Biden +14

Just south of Orlando, this fast-growing county is one of only three in the state that are majority Hispanic, with Puerto Ricans by far the largest subgroup. Trump had already made big strides here four years ago, cutting what had been a 25-point loss in 2016 down to 14 points, and this time he outright won it. His particular strength with Puerto Ricans here is part of the broader national shift of Hispanic voters toward the Trump-led GOP. And it’s doubly significant in light of the controversy over a joke about Puerto Rico at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, which Democrats had argued would erode Trump’s Puerto Rican support.

Lawrence, Massachusetts

Population: 89,000

2024 result: Harris +17

2020 result: Biden +49

Don’t be deceived by the margin: This was a disastrous result for Democrats in Massachusetts’ most heavily Hispanic city. When Trump ran in 2016, he was crushed in Lawrence, an old mill city on the Merrimack River, by 66 points. Four years ago, he brought it down to 49 points. His 57%-40% defeat this time around is the first time a GOP presidential candidate has cracked 40% here since 1988, back when the city was still majority white. Dominicans are the largest Hispanic subgroup in Lawrence, demonstrating the breadth of Trump’s gains.

Loudoun County, Virginia

Population: 420,000

2024 result: Harris +16

2020 result: Biden +25

In the D.C. metro area, suburban/exurban Loudoun’s population growth and political shift toward Democrats in recent years is a key reason for Virginia’s emergence as a reliably blue state in presidential elections. But last week, Loudoun took an unexpected turn back in the GOP’s direction, with Trump erasing nearly 10 points from his 2020 deficit. One reason: The county has an unusually high concentration of Asian Americans (21%), another nonwhite group with which Democrats’ previously massive advantage shriveled this election.

Rockland County, New York

Population: 341,000

2024 result: Trump +12

2020 result: Biden +2

Not far from New York City, Rockland has the highest concentration of Jewish residents of any county in America (nearly 1 in 3). The Trump campaign sought to channel a backlash over left-wing pro-Palestinian protests into new Jewish support, and while the national exit poll showed no meaningful GOP traction, Rockland’s 14-point swing toward Trump suggests there was movement here. Part of this may be because of the county’s sizable Orthodox community, which leans more to the right than the Jewish population as a whole. But given that the Jewish vote is so small and difficult to measure nationally, Rockland’s result raises the possibility that Trump may have had more success with this group than the exit poll captured.

McKinley County, New Mexico

Population: 73,000

2024 result: Harris +25

2020 result: Biden +39

Three out of 4 McKinley residents are Native American, and across the county the Navajo language is still widely spoken. Here and elsewhere, Native Americans have long been a heavily Democratic constituency. But Trump’s gains with nonwhite voters are evident here, too. His 25-point loss in McKinley is actually the closest a Republican has come here in 40 years. The possibility of a shift like this is part of why the Trump campaign made a late push in New Mexico, even though he did fall 6 points short statewide.

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Trump transition watch

President-elect Donald Trump is continuing the process of building out his administration, tapping allies for key posts.

• Trump is planning to nominate South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Noem has voiced support for the president-elect’s hard-line immigration policies and has defended her fellow Republican governors in their efforts to crack down on migrants in their states.
• Trump is expected to nominate Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida for secretary of state, though he could still change his mind. Rubio, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and vice chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence, is seen potentially as being able to thread the needle of appealing enough to Trump’s political base while not needlessly eroding relationships with foreign allies.
• Trump said he intends to nominate former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a high-profile diplomatic posting in a tumultuous region.
• Trump has picked Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., to be his national security adviser. Waltz has hawkish views on China and has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
• FBI Director Christopher Wray and Trump’s team are planning for the possibility that the president-elect will replace Wray. One person under consideration for Wray’s job is Trump adviser Kash Patel, who is also being considered to lead the CIA.

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Trump’s Cabinet moves hand Ron DeSantis a gift — but possibly with strings attached

By Matt Dixon

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will have a chance to put another stamp on state politics with a big appointment if Sen. Marco Rubio becomes secretary of state. But one major question is hanging over that opportunity: How badly does President-elect Donald Trump want his daughter-in-law, Lara, to become a U.S. senator?

DeSantis, like any Florida governor, has the ability to unilaterally appoint the person who would fill a vacant Senate seat, which would come into play following Trump’s expected nomination of Rubio to lead the State Department. Trump could still change his mind, cautioned three sources familiar with the selection process, who said the decision wouldn’t be final until the president-elect makes a formal announcement.

But if Rubio’s Senate seat becomes open, there is little doubt DeSantis will face at least some pressure from Trump’s team to appoint a candidate they want, which would almost certainly be Lara Trump, according to seven people tracking deliberations around the potential vacancy.

DeSantis does not have to listen to Trump, after the two men saw their relationship fray amid DeSantis’ national rise and his failed 2024 presidential campaign. But the president-elect carried Florida by nearly 13 points this year, giving Trump a shot of political capital and at least the perception of leverage.

But Trump’s wishes are far from the only consideration when it comes to a Senate seat that hasn’t been open in 14 years. Another route getting significant attention, according to five sources NBC News spoke with, would be the so-called “placeholder” strategy.

Under that scenario, DeSantis would likely appoint James Uthmeier, his longtime chief of staff and top political adviser who also did legal work for Trump’s first campaign and advised former Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. Uthmeier would then not run when the seat came up for a special election in 2026 to fill the remaining two years of Rubio’s term — giving DeSantis an open Senate seat to run for ahead of a likely second campaign for president in 2028.

Read more →

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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