Why new polling should be a wake-up call for the Democrats

This is an adapted excerpt from the Oct. 13 episode of “Ayman.”

With just a little more than three weeks to go until Election Day, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a dead heat. New NBC News polling released Sunday has the race tied, with Harris and Trump both at 48% nationally among registered voters. It’s a noticeable drop from last month’s NBC News poll that had Harris leading Trump by five points within the margin of error.

What if adhering to presidential norms is the thing hurting Harris’ campaign?

When Harris entered the race in July, she brought with her a wave of momentum and excitement. So, just a few short months later, many may be asking: How did we get here? How is the race still this close?

After all, Trump has been opting out of debates in favor of interviews with podcast bros, ranting nonsensically about circles, and even appearing at Coachella — of all places — in a last-minute Hail Mary attempt to win support in blue states.

Meanwhile, Harris has been acting like a presidential candidate. She’s been holding town halls with voters and spent all of last week going on a heavy-duty media blitz. But what if that’s the problem? What if adhering to presidential norms is the thing hurting Harris’ campaign?

After all, she’s positioned herself as a new candidate for the future. It was a message anxious Democrat voters needed to hear after President Joe Biden caved to pressure and dropped out of the race. But since then, she hasn’t distanced herself from Biden, instead, she’s held on tight to him and his policies.

In two different interviews in just the past few days, Harris was given the opportunity to explain how her presidency would be different from Biden’s. But the best the vice president seemed to come up with was telling Stephen Colbert, “I’m not Joe Biden but I’m not Donald Trump.”

The problem is, that distinction may not be enough for voters. The closer she’s kept herself to Biden’s unpopular policies, especially on Gaza, the more harmful it’s been for her campaign.

Instead of meeting with leaders of the Uncommitted Movement to ease their concerns about Israel’s assault on Gaza and create daylight between Biden’s stance on the war and hers, Harris is touting the support of Republicans like former Rep. Liz Cheney. She’s even promised to convene a bipartisan counsel of advisers, including Republicans, on policy should she win.

Compare the vice president’s polling position today to Trump’s in 2016. Eight years ago, he was a complete political novice. Voters had no idea how he would govern but they still voted him into office. Today, his supporters know exactly who he is and who he’ll be as president. So much so that, according to USA Today’s David Jackson, Trump is polling better today than he was in 2016 and 2020.

The closer she’s kept herself to Biden’s unpopular policies, especially on Gaza, the more harmful it’s been for her campaign.

This should serve as a wake-up call for the Harris campaign. With Trump, the American people know what they’re getting. He stands for fascism, authoritarianism and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.

But the question for Democrats in this last stretch remains: What are you for? What is Harris for? And, in the end, will it be enough to stop Trump and his authoritarian vision for the country?